- On 16/06/2020
If you, like us, are fed up with gloomy forecasts about the post-crisis future, we suggest that you look at the situation from the other side – and how can the new world be better than the old one? What will change for the better when bans fall and we breathe deeply? And how not to miss the moment and find your place in this world? Let’s tell you about one very interesting forecast on this issue.
Earlier this month, the Center for Industry Expertise of the Agricultural Bank introduced a study “Top 5 Trends in Socio-Economic Transformation against the Background of Global Challenges”. It is noteworthy that this is precisely the Russian expertise, because the products of Western centres, which are often engaged, are mainly in the field of view of the media. Of the 5 trends identified by specialists, 3 correspond to our expectations that we published in March – acceleration of robotisation, the transition to remote work of a significant number of fellow citizens and the development of virtual and augmented reality technologies. However, only the lazy did not speak about this. But it is important that together these three trends open the way to the fourth – the process of deurbanisation, that is, the exodus of people from megalopolises to the countryside.
In itself, this phenomenon is contrary to the global trend – all over the world people are moving to cities, more than half of the world’s population is already concentrated there. But the current situation has shown that the city, especially the large one, is not at all as safe as it seemed before, and after the pandemic is over, personal freedom will not increase in it, but rather will decrease due to the development of urban control and monitoring systems. Therefore, a person’s natural desire is to move to the countryside. How large-scale such a process will become in Russia, whom it will affect and how it will change the national economy – we will tell you after a brief roundup of news.
In New Moscow, the long-awaited infectious diseases hospital was opened, built in record time in just over a month.
The first of 16 medical centres that the Ministry of Defence is currently building throughout the country is opened in Nizhny Novgorod.
Oceanographic research vessel “Academician Alexandrov” transferred to the customer. The 15th and 16th serial Raptor patrol boats and the new dry cargo ship of the RSD59 project were launched.
Projects for the modernisation of production were completed at the Chelyabinsk Metallurgical Plant, at the Bratsk Ferroalloy Plant and Volzhsky Tire Plant.
In the Leningrad region, the production of marine engines and control systems has been launched.
In Vologda – a woodworking enterprise.
In the Altai Territory, there is a poultry farm.
According to the study, the countryside in Russia, taking into account the existing infrastructure, is ready to accept at least 2-3 million people in the next few years. Basically, those who switched to remote work as a result of a pandemic and psychologically looking for a more comfortable living environment. However, this will be only the first wave of immigrants. The influx of people into the countryside will begin to form a new economy there – the fashion for the consumption of local farm products (and this is the fifth trend in the study) arose even before the virus, and soon it will receive fertile ground for development because after experiencing unpleasant moments of food panic, people will seek to provide self-food, which will increase the number of family farms. No wonder that since April 20, Russia has introduced free certification of organic production for small and medium-sized enterprises. Surplus products will be sold to regional markets or directly to end consumers through mobile applications. All this will undermine the monopoly of large retail chains and help small businesses.
In general, for several years now we have been watching how whole villages of programmers appear in the country or forgotten villages are being revived by the forces of entrepreneurs who move there to develop farming. Therefore, we will not see anything brand new, only the scale of the process will increase.
At the same time, cities and megacities, of course, will not be empty, rather, they will improve their health by dropping ballast in those sectors of the economy where it was artificially inflated. But there are other consequences.
The influx of people into the villages will force the state to build social infrastructure there again – roads, hospitals, schools, sports and cultural clubs. Officials themselves are openly talking about the errors of the past optimisation, which means that recovery is even more likely. A more even distribution of the population across the territory will require a revision of the country’s transport system, and it will probably once again actualise the construction of high-speed rail lines and new federal highways. Small regional aviation and river transport will get an impetus for life.
New opportunities are also opening up for business. Firstly, in an economic downturn, people moving to villages will be interested in budget housing construction. Surely the state will additionally subsidise such construction, so a new market will open. Secondly, the emergence of new modern points of growth in rural life will arouse the interest of fellow citizens in domestic tourism. It is always more pleasant to visit places where, in addition to beautiful nature and architectural monuments, there are comfortable living conditions. Thirdly, a rural resident needs even more goods and items than a resident of a megalopolis, although this is not a new “iPhone”, a variety of household and work equipment. In general, someone who is not used to sitting still and is ready in any situation to look for new opportunities will find a way to make friends with this new reality.